The biggest issue going into Saturday’s action is figuring out which players could rest following a busy international break. Mohamed Salah and Christian Eriksen are at the top of the list, while Kevin De Bruyne is returning from a lengthy injury and could also mix things up. That being the case, it’ll be important to monitor lineups ahead of this week’s EPL $35K Counter Attack Special [$10K to 1st] leaderboard.
STUDSSergio Aguero, Manchester City vs. Burnley, $10,600 — Aguero has by far the best odds to score on the slate and is going against a Burnley side that’s allowed a league-high 161 shots. That should lead to a floor near 10 fantasy points even if he only plays 70 minutes, which he’s done in his last four starts. His floor will be hard to pass up in cash games and that makes Harry Kane more useful in GPP as he’s on the road.
Other Options — Harry Kane, Tottenham, $10,100; Raheem Sterling, Manchester City, $9,800; Roberto Firmino, Liverpool, $8,000
VALUESGlenn Murray, Brighton at Newcastle, $5,700 — If you take away Murray’s performances against the top clubs (Man City, Tottenham, Liverpool), he’s been one of the more consistent forwards. He has four goals, 11 shots and eight fouls drawn in his last three matches against West Ham, Southampton and Fulham. Conveniently, Newcastle are another team near the bottom of the table and have allowed the fourth-most shots (124) in the Premier League.
Other Options — Joshua King, Bournemouth, $6,700; Marko Arnautovic, West Ham, $6,400; Lucas Vietto, Fulham, $5,600
STUDSRyan Fraser, Bournemouth vs. Southampton, $8,100 — Fraser withdrew from international duty because of a hamstring issue, but he hasn’t played in two weeks and should be ready for this matchup considering he was playing through the injury with Bournemouth. He’s averaging 1.68 shots, 2.72 chances created and 5.30 crosses per 90 minutes, which has given him a floor close to 10 points against bottom-table sides. Southampton fit that description having lost their last three league matches by a combined 8-0 score line.
Other Options — Mohamed Salah, Liverpool $10,400; Christian Eriksen, Tottenham, $8,300; David Silva, Manchester City, $7,900
VALUESJean Michael Seri, Fulham at Cardiff, $5,400 — Seri and Fulham haven’t done much in recent matches and that’s mostly due to schedule as three of their last four have come against Arsenal, Everton and Man City with two of those on the road. They’re on the road again, but Cardiff hate controlling the ball (average 38.9% possession) and that should play into Seri’s strength. He had eight crosses against a similar low-possession Watford team a few weeks ago and could be near that number against Cardiff.
Other Options — Jonjo Shelvey, Newcastle, $4,800; Pierre Hojberg, Southampton, $4,100; Callum Paterson, Cardiff, $4,100
STUDSKieran Trippier, Tottenham at West Ham, $7,100 — Trippier is the most expensive defender and he’s worth it with a floor around 10 fantasy points, averaging 8.77 crosses per match. A matchup with West Ham won’t change that no matter what the result is. Trippier has reached 10.3 fantasy points in every match but the one against Liverpool and West Ham are not Liverpool, allowing the fourth-most crosses (60) to defenders in the league.
Other Options — Benjamin Mendy, Manchester City, $7,000; Kyle Walker, Manchester, $5,500; Jonny, Wolverhampton, $5,300
VALUESKiko Femenia, Watford at Wolverhampton, $4,100 — Femenia provides tons of value as a fullback that’s slated for another start with Jose Holebas suspended and Daryl Janmaat still hurt. Femenia only had 4.5 fantasy points against Bournemouth, but that game was sour from the start. He should be a little more active as long as Watford don’t go into self-destruct mode and that should lead to a solid floor for cheap.
Other Options — Ryan Bertrand, Southampton, $4,400; Aymeric Laporte, Manchester City, $4,100; Willy Boly, Wolverhampton, $3,900
STUDSRui Patricio, Wolverhampton vs. Watford, $5,300 — Patricio has allowed just two goals in the last six matches and those came against both Manchester clubs. Even better is that he’s making almost four saves per match and Watford haven’t scored in their last two. Ederson and Alisson may have better odds to win and secure clean sheets, but they’ll also make fewer saves.
Other Options — Ederson, Manchester City, $6,000; Alisson, Liverpool, $5,900; Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, $5,200
VALUESLukasz Fabianski, West Ham vs. Tottenham, $4,100 — West Ham have held their ground in home matches, giving up just four goals on four occasions and one of those was a clean sheet against Chelsea. They’ll likely play defensive against Spurs with hopes of another low-scoring contest. And even if Fabianski allows a goal, he’s made at least three saves in every start so it’s a good bet he’ll get enough points to make value.
Other Options — Marcus Bettinelli, Fulham, $4,700; Mat Ryan, Brighton, $4,600; Joe Hart, Burnley, $3,600
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (username: rotozdroik) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.