Saturday’s Premier League slate is an odd one that features a huge favorite and five other matches in which anything can happen. Manchester City are, of course, the big favorite, and at least two of their players likely will be in most lineups for the EPL $30K Backheel Special [$5K to 1st].
If you want to go against everyone else, there’s always Crystal Palace.
STUDSRaheem Sterling, Manchester City vs. Bournemouth, $10,500 — I’m only going to write about Sterling, but every Man City attacker should be considered as the biggest favorite with almost one full goal expected more than every other team. Sterling doesn’t have as good of goal odds as the more expensive Sergio Aguero ($11,200), but he has the same upside and has been excellent at home with five goals and three assists in five league matches. Aguero has been just as good, yet costs a little more.
Other Options — Sergio Aguero, Manchester City, $11,200; Leroy Sane, Manchester City, $9,800; Riyad Mahrez, Manchester City, $9,100
VALUESSteve Mounie, Huddersfield vs. Brighton, $5,100 — Mounie is probably a little too cheap for a forward playing at home against Brighton. He also is averaging three shots per 90 minutes and has missed only one minute the past two matches. Brighton have allowed the second-most shots (94) over the past five games, and Mounie surely will get looks.
Other Options — Andros Townsend, Crystal Palace, $6,800; Pascal Gross, Brighton, $6,600; Salomon Rondon, Newcastle, $6,000
STUDSAaron Mooy, Huddersfield vs. Brighton, $7,300 — Maybe don’t go all-in with Huddersfield players, but Mooy is in a good spot to hit at least 10 fantasy points. He won’t score a brace again, though should be plenty busy on spot kicks against a Brighton team allowing close to 30 crosses per match in the past five, by far the worst rate in the league. Mooy’s price might be higher than usual, but he has a decent floor, so he should still make value.
Other Options — David Silva, Manchester City, $9,000; James Maddison, Leicester, $8,700; Marko Arnautovic, West Ham, $8,500
VALUESKenedy, Newcastle vs. West Ham, $5,900 — Newcastle have won their past three and face a West Ham side that isn’t any better than the teams they’ve beaten in Bournemouth and Watford. In his past three home starts as an outside midfielder, Kenedy has 14 shots and is averaging more than 10 fantasy points. As long as he’s in that position (played left back against Leicester), the opportunity will be there.
Other Options — Luka Milivojevic, Crystal Palace, $6,500; Alex Pritchard, Huddersfield, $5,100; Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Southampton, $5,000
STUDSBen Chilwell, Leicester vs. Watford, $5,500 — I don’t like any of the expensive defenders unless Jose Holebas ($6,500) starts, so Chilwell is the best choice at a reasonable price. He’s producing 5.15 crosses per 90 minutes and should get up the field against Watford given their recent struggles. Watford also have allowed the sixth-most crosses (85) to defenders and are in the bottom half of every other relevant stat.
Other Options — Erik Durm, Huddersfield, $5,600; Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Crystal Palace, $5,300; Matt Targett, Southampton, $5,000
VALUESCharlie Taylor, Burnley at Crystal Palace, $3,700 — Taylor just showed he could post big crossing numbers in a loss and now faces a Crystal Palace team that has allowed the second-most crosses (109) and tackles (104) to defenders. Taylor has a floor of around five fantasy points, but as long as Burnley don’t get run off the field, he could reach the nine fantasy points he had against Newcastle.
Other Options — DeAndre Yedlin, Newcastle, $4,400; Antonio Valencia, Manchester United, $4,000; Terence Kongolo, Huddersfield, $3,200
STUDSJonas Lossl, Huddersfield vs. Brighton, $5,100 — Lossl has allowed one goal in his past three starts and plays a Brighton team that has just 12 shots on goal in the past five matches. Lossl might not make a ton of saves, but he has decent enough clean sheet odds not to spend up on Ederson ($6,000).
Other Options — Ederson, Manchester City, $6,000; Wayne Hennessey, Crystal Palace, $5,400; David De Gea, Manchester United, $5,200
VALUESAlex McCarthy, Southampton vs. Manchester United, $4,300 — Any of the value goalkeepers can be considered on a slate that could feature numerous clean sheets. McCarthy isn’t favored, but Man United are struggling. They have the second-most shots on goal (28) in the past five gameweeks, yet that’s produced just seven goals and they barely got past Young Boys on Tuesday after failing to score at home against Crystal Palace prior to that.
Other Options — Ben Foster, Watford, $4,500; Mat Ryan, Brighton, $4,400; Joe Hart, Burnley, $4,000
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