Once again, Manchester City are the biggest favorite on the slate, but that doesn’t automatically mean you have to roster three of their players. With smaller clubs like Leicester and Huddersfield in decent situations, there are plenty of routes to take for the EPL $40K Backheel Special [$10K to 1st].
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City vs. Watford, $10,600 — Harry Kane has often held a better floor, but it’s hard to ignore Aguero’s success at home, scoring seven goals in his last three starts and 15 in 11 home starts this season. City are also expected to score almost a full goal more than Tottenham and Watford just gave up five at Liverpool. Aguero’s price is fairly high for someone that lacks relevance without goals, but it’s rare when he doesn’t score at the Etihad.
Other Options — Harry Kane, Tottenham, $10,300; Raheem Sterling, Manchester City, $8,800; Jamie Vardy, Leicester, $8,400
Karlan Grant, Huddersfield vs. Bournemouth, $5,500 — This may be an odd play since Grant isn’t well known, but he’s started the last two matches for Huddersfield, producing 9.5 fantasy points from four shots and four crosses. His floor is reasonable and this matchup is more favorable than the other two, as Bournemouth have been brutal away from home, giving up at least two goals in their last nine road trips, losing all of them.
Other Options — Ryan Babel, Fulham, $6,300; Steve Mounie, Huddersfield, $6,000; Miguel Almiron, Newcastle, $5,400
James Maddison, Leicester vs. Fulham, $8,300 — Maddison may have the best floor on the slate with at least 11 fantasy points in his last five starts and that’s with only one appearance on the score sheet (one assist). Crosses continue to stack up via corners, but he also has 16 shots and 13 fouls drawn in that period. This is the most favorable matchup of the season for Leicester as Fulham have allowed the most crosses and fourth-most corners in the Premier League.
Other Options — James Ward-Prowse, Southampton, $8,200; Ryan Fraser, Bournemouth, $7,900; Matt Ritchie, Newcastle, $7,700
Joe Ralls, Cardiff vs. West Ham, $4,500 — Ralls isn’t as safe as he was, but even with Victor Camarasa back in the squad last match, he still had 9.3 points from seven crosses and three shots. Ralls is still taking some corners and that should give him a floor near five points in most matchups. Cardiff may be struggling, but West Ham have been bad away from home with just one point from their last five trips.
Other Options — Philip Billing, Huddersfield, $4,700; Manuel Lanzini, West Ham, $4,400; Wilfred Ndidi, Leicester, $4,400
Lucas Digne, Everton at Newcastle, $6,300 — Digne’s floor has been a bit all over, but as seen in the Liverpool match when he had 12 fantasy points, it usually doesn’t matter who plays. That said, he’s almost guaranteed eight points and produced a ridiculous 22 crosses in the first meeting with Newcastle (23.5 fantasy points). While he won’t hit that number again, Newcastle have allowed the second-most crosses to defenders this season.
Other Options — Roberto Pereira, Leicester, $6,200; Danny Rose, Tottenham, $5,800; Oleksandr Zinchenko, Manchester City, $5,300
Harry Maguire, Leicester vs. Fulham, $3,400 — Maguire doesn’t have the best floor since defensive stats are unreliable, but he has at least one shot in his last eight starts and seven in his last three. Throw in the second-best odds for a clean sheet and his floor could reach five points. Helping even more, Fulham have allowed the second-most shots to defenders this season.
Other Options — Calum Chambers, Fulham, $3,700; DeAndre Yedlin, Newcastle, $3,500; Zanka, Huddersfield, $3,400
Lukasz Fabianski, West Ham at Cardiff, $5,000 — Fabianski has been one of the more consistent fantasy goalkeepers with at least six points in his last six starts and at least eight in his last three. He’s allowed just two goals total in recent road trips to Man City and Crystal Palace, and Cardiff aren’t as good as either of those teams. In fact, Cardiff have lost their last two home matches by a combined 8-1 score line.
Other Options — Ederson, Manchester City, $6,000; Kasper Schmeichel, Leicester, $5,600; Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, $5,400
Jonas Lossl, Huddersfield vs. Bournemouth, $4,500 — Given Bournemouth’s away struggles, it’s a surprise that Huddersfield aren’t a small favorite. They won their last home match against Wolves and only one other team (Fulham) has a worse road goal differential than Bournemouth, who have scored just 13 goals in 14 trips and only once in their last four.
Other Options — Martin Dubravka, Newcastle, $4,600; Neil Etheridge, Cardiff, $4,400; Angus Gunn, Southampton, $4,200
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