Chelsea is the biggest favorite on Saturday’s slate, yet they’ve been smashed in their last two Premier League matches. That should make things more interesting as none of the six matches have an expected goal total over three. Finding players with a good floor will be the best strategy in cash games, though backing a side that could score a few goals against a bad backline is the best bet for the EPL $30K Grow the Game [$5K to 1st] .
Eden Hazard, Chelsea vs. Huddersfield, $9,900 — I know Willian ($9,100) has the same floor as Hazard, but the price difference isn’t as big as it used to be with Hazard cheap compared to a couple weeks ago ($11,200 against Newcastle). He also has more upside having made the score sheet multiple times on five different occasions compared to zero for Willian. Chelsea isn’t playing well, but playing Huddersfield could be the antidote as they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 in all competitions.
Other Options — Willian, Chelsea, $9,100; Andros Townsend, Crystal Palace, $9,000; Gylfi Sigurdsson, Everton, $8,900
David Hoilett, Cardiff vs. Bournemouth, $6,400 — Hoilett is slightly more expensive than usual, but he’s been worth it with at least 7.3 DKFP in his last four starts. There aren’t a ton of viable, value forwards on the slate and with a good matchup, Hoilett should hit value again. He was rested in the last match, so he could be set for a full 90 against Bournemouth, a team that has lost its last six league road matches, giving up multiple goals in each of them.
Other Options — Jordan Ayew, Crystal Palace, $6,900; Ryan Babel, Fulham, $5,600; Troy Deeney, Watford, $5,400
Ryan Fraser, Bournemouth at Cardiff, $8,000 — While the Cherries have struggled on the road, that hasn’t stopped Fraser from racking up crosses, accruing 12 in his last road start. A lot of people will be on James Ward-Prowse ($8,400), but Fraser has had a similar floor with the help of free kicks and corners. Cardiff has allowed the second-most corners in the league so there will be an opportunity for Fraser to hit a floor of 10 fantasy points yet again.
Other Options — James Ward-Prowse, Southampton, $8,400; Luka Milivojevic, Crystal Palace, $7,900; Johann Berg Gudmundsson, Burnley, $6,600
Jean Michael Seri, Fulham at Crystal Palace, $4,500 — Seri hasn’t been an easy player to trust, but his floor has returned to around six fantasy points with 22 corners in the last three matches. Crystal Palace doesn’t allow an overwhelming amount of corners, but neither does Tottenham and Seri had seven in that recent match. Palace lost 2-1 in its last home contest in league play and that inconsistency could help Fulham, a team coming off a rare win, having scored at least once in each of their last six matches.
Other Options — Ashley Westwood, Burnley, $5,200; Joe Ralls, Cardiff, $4,400; Jorginho, Chelsea, $4,000
Jose Holebas, Watford at Brighton, $6,000 — Holebas hasn’t been as consistent as earlier in the season, but he’s the easiest defender to trust on the slate and has at least 6.3 fantasy points in his last three starts. Even better is that Brighton has allowed the fifth-most crosses to defenders and sixth-most corners overall, which should help Holebas reach a floor of 10 fantasy points.
Other Options — Marcos Alonso, Chelsea, $6,200; Joe Bryan, Fulham, $5,500; Patrick van Aanholt, Crystal Palace, $4,800
Joe Bennett, Cardiff vs. Bournemouth, $3,800 — Bennett has at least four fantasy points in his last three starts (eight crosses) and that’s good enough for the price. He should come close to five points in a match that has the second-most expected goals, while Bournemouth has allowed the fourth-most crosses to defenders this season.
Other Options — Calum Chambers, Fulham, $4,300; Daryl Janmaat, Watford, $4,100; Kevin Long, Burnley, $4,000
Vicente Guaita, Crystal Palace vs. Fulham, $5,400 — Guaita returned in the last match and has at least four fantasy points in all six starts in which he’s finished the game. With the second-best odds for a win and clean sheet, he’s fairly easy to trust. Plus, Fulham has scored just eight road goals all season with three in their last seven road trips.
Other Options — Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea, $5,900; Jordan Pickford, Everton, $5,100; Artur Boruc, Bournemouth, $5,000
Ben Foster, Watford at Brighton, $4,600 — Foster has 22 saves in his last four starts and that’s helped him reach at least four fantasy points in each of those outings. This match has the lowest expected goal total and Brighton hasn’t scored more than one goal in each of their last five home matches in all competitions.
Other Options — Tom Heaton, Burnley, $4,800; Neil Etheridge, Cardiff, $4,500; Jonas Lossl, Huddersfield, $3,600
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