This is a weird five-match slate with relegation the only thing to play for, as Brighton and Cardiff are battling in 17th and 18th place, respectively. That doesn’t make results easy to predict, and that’s why going with better floors is the best strategy. Then again, if you want to win the EPL $25K Backheel Special, that’ll take a gamble or two.
STUDSGylfi Sigurdsson, Everton at Crystal Palace, $9,500 — I’m slightly tentative on Sigurdsson because of his most recent away performance, but on average, he has the best floor on the slate and he doesn’t cost an overwhelming amount. He had a floor of 14.8 fantasy points in the first meeting against Crystal Palace, who have allowed the second most crosses in the league. That should help Sigurdsson reach at least 10 points again with a couple shots added in. Other Options — Gerard Deulofeu, Watford, $9,100; Wilfried Zaha, Crystal Palace, $8,500; Aleksandar Mitrovic, Fulham, $8,100
VALUESDavid Junior Hoilett, Cardiff at Fulham, $6,000 — You don’t usually find forwards with a decent floor at this price, but that’s what Hoilett provides. He has at least 6.3 fantasy points in his past three starts with the most recent one coming against Liverpool. In addition to possibly taking corners with Joe Ralls out, he’s been active with eight shots in that period, but also a few defensive stats to boost his floor. Fulham are playing well, but Cardiff are in need of three points and will be pressing the majority of the match.
Other Options — Nathan Redmond, Southampton, $6,300; Danny Ings, Southampton, $5,700; Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Brighton, $5,300
STUDSJames Ward-Prowse, Southampton vs. Bournemouth, $7,900 — Ryan Fraser ($9,000) will get the attention, but Ward-Prowse has the better value on the other end of the field. Ward-Prowse doesn’t have the same floor, but he still is averaging close to seven crosses per match to go with a shot or two in the right situation. Helping his floor reach 10 points is that Bournemouth have allowed the fifth-most corners and crosses in the league. Other Options — Ryan Fraser, Bournemouth, $9,000; Matt Ritchie, Newcastle, $8,000; Luka Milivojevic, Crystal Palace, $7,700
VALUESWill Hughes, Watford vs. Wolverhampton, $4,700 — Hughes isn’t a flashy play, but he continues to be one of the better values with at least 5.8 points in five of his past six starts. He does that in a variety of ways (shots, fouls drawn, defensive stats), which helps him reach a good number no matter the matchup.
Other Options — Idrissa Gueye, Everton, $4,400; Ki Sung-yueng, Newcastle, $4,300; Jean Michael Seri, Fulham, $4,100
STUDSLucas Digne, Everton at Crystal Palace, $6,300 — Digne has a steep price compared to others, but it’s hard to go against him. He has the best floor by far of any defender, averaging 8.48 crosses per 90 minutes with 10 fantasy points usually a good bet. He steals corners from Sigurdsson, but they usually stay out of each other’s way in fantasy. Crystal Palace also have allowed 20 more crosses to defenders than anyone else. Other Options — Matt Targett, Southampton, $5,900; Joe Bryan, Fulham, $5,300; Matt Doherty, Wolverhampton, $4,900
VALUESNathan Ake, Bournemouth at Southampton, $3,000 — Ake has played at leftback the past two matches and he could be a chalk play. Sure, that hasn’t resulted in a ton of fantasy value, but he’s at least getting points with 8.3 in that period. Neither side has much to play for, so both should get up and down the field plenty and that could mean another five point outing for Ake.
Other Options — Joe Bennett, Cardiff, $3,900; Calum Chambers, Fulham, $3,800; DeAndre Yedlin, Newcastle, $3,700
STUDSMat Ryan, Brighton vs. Newcastle, $5,100 — You know it’s not a good goalkeeper slate when the most expensive option is $5,300. I’m not that comfortable with Ryan, but he has the best odds for a clean sheet and there’s a decent chance Brighton aim for another scoreless draw. If that’s the case, he also should make a few more saves than usual. Other Options — Angus Gunn, Southampton, $5,300; Sergio Rico, Fulham, $5,000; Ben Foster, Watford, $4,900
VALUESMartin Dubravka, Newcastle at Brighton, $4,400 — As said with Ryan, there’s a chance Brighton play for a scoreless draw, which would make Dubravka the smarter play. While he might not make the same amount of saves, a clean sheet at this price is always worth it. Even if Brighton try to score, I wouldn’t bet on them finding the back of the net, even at home.
Other Options — Rui Patricio, Wolverhampton, $4,600; Neil Etheridge, Cardiff, $4,500; Artur Boruc, Bournemouth, $4,300
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